Mag 7 Feb 2025. Top Charts and Graphics.
Take a cup of coffee and learn visually the revenues, the forecast, the products, and the rest of the value adding details across the top 7 companies in the world with a juice of AI.
Top companies globally (end of Jan 2025):
Let’s start by checking what the top companies are looking at the end of Jan 2025. ↓
The ranking changed for NVIDIA, and Meta gained one position.
GS: The Magnificent 7 stocks account for half of S&P 500 growth investment spending
1.Apple
$AAPL Apple Q1 FY25 (December quarter):
Services +14% Y/Y to $26.3B.
Products +2% Y/Y to $98.0B.
• Revenue +4% Y/Y to $124.3B ($0.3B beat).
• Operating margin 34% (+1pp Y/Y).
• EPS $2.40 ($0.06 beat).
Apple Q1 2025
Revenue +4% *iPhone -1% *Mac +16% *iPad +15% *Wearables, Home. -2% *Services +14% *Americas +4% *Europe +11% *Greater China -11% *Japan +16% *Rest of Asia Pacific +1% EBIT +6% *margin 34.5% (33.8) EPS +10%
Apple has now returned more money to shareholders than it has generated in free cash flow for 24 of the last 28 quarters (on an LTM basis).
Buybacks + Dividends (LTM): $119 billion
Free Cash Flow (LTM): $98 billion
The Mac turns 41 years in Jan
Galaxy S25 Ultra vs iPhone 16 Pro Max
2.Nvidia
January 27th, 2025 is the largest day ever for $NVDA Nvidia at -$600B in one day.
This all comes as large cap US tech is preparing to spend ~$1 TRILLION on CapEx by 2026. Much of this CapEx is for AI infrastructure and development. 2025 is already a historic year and it's only January.
Revenue from $NVDA's customers with Singapore as the billing location (where, according to the company, shipments are insignificant) has grown from 9% to 22% of total revenue over the past two years.
Charlie Bilello: Nvidia is the best performing stock in the S&P 500 over the last 5, 10, 15, and 20 years. NVDA 0.00%↑
CEO Jensen Huang recently said in an interview with @cleoabram: "Everything that moves will be robotic someday and it will be soon" ... "a future where you are just surrounded by robots is for certain and I'm just excited about having my own R2D2"
CEO Jensen Huang said this week that self driving vehicles will be a multi trillion dollar industry:
China's New AI Industry Development Action Plan will Provide 1 trillion yuan ($ 137 billion) to support its AI industry over the next five years.
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$NVDA is currently the most successful chipmaker. Nvidia is up 171.2% in 2024, while S&P500 up 23.3%.
The Rise of $NVDA: From $600M to $3.5T
$NVDA is trading at ~24x next year EPS.
Mag 7 today versus 2000s tech bubble.
3.Microsoft
$MSFT Microsoft Q2 FY25 (ending December):
Azure +31% Y/Y fx neutral (vs. 34% in Q1).
AI revenue annual rate +175% Y/Y to $13B.
• Revenue +12% Y/Y to $69.6B ($0.8B beat).
• Gross margin 69% (+1pp Y/Y)
• Operating margin 45% (+2pp Y/Y).
• EPS $3.13 ($0.13 beat).
$MSFT CapEx increased with 97% y/y in Q2'25
$MSFT Q2 2025 "Already, our AI business has surpassed an annual revenue run rate of $13 billion, up 175% year-over-year." - Satya Nadella Revenue +12% *Prod. & Business +14% *Intelligent Cloud +19% *Pers. Computing +0% *Azure +31% *LinkedIn +9% *Xbox C&S +2% EBIT +17% *marg. 45% (44) EPS +10%
$MSFT is the perfect illustration of: • Great CEO • Smart, timely acquisitions • Product innovation and iteration
Here's why I love $MSFT stock: If you own $MSFT, you basically own a tech ETF. They have a wide variety of businesses segments, many which benefit from network effects.
$MSFT - OpenAI in Talks for Funding Round Valuing It Up to $340 Billion, Sources Say -- WSJ SoftBank in Discussions to Lead Round and Invest $15 Billion to $25 Billion, Sources Say -- WSJ
Cern Basher: Optimus --> nothing else matters.
4.Amazon
• Revenue +10% Y/Y to $187.8B ($0.5B beat).
• Operating margin 11% (+4pp Y/Y).
• FCF $38B TTM.
• Q1 Guidance: ~$153B ($5B miss).
☁️ AWS: • Revenue +19% Y/Y to $28.8B.
• Operating margin 37% (+7pp Y/Y).
Revenue +10%
Online Stores +8%
*Physical Stores +8%
*Third Party Sellers +9%
*Subscriptions +10%
*Advertising +18%
*AWS +19%
EBIT +61%
*margin 11.3% (7.8)
EPS +86%
FCF LTM +4%
AWS is now on a $115 billion annual run rate and still growing 19% YoY.
Combined, the hyperscalers (MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META) are expected to increase CapEx by another ~44% in 2025. Via Eric Flaningam
$AMZN has 47% estimated market share in cloud while $MSFT and $GOOG have 34% and 18% respectively.
5.Google
$GOOG Alphabet Q4 FY24:
• Revenue +12% Y/Y to $96.5B ($0.2B miss).
• Operating margin 32% (+5pp Y/Y).
• EPS $2.15 ($0.02 beat).
Google Cloud:
• Revenue +30% Y/Y to $12.0B.
• Operating margin 18% (+8pp Y/Y).
YouTube ads +14% to $10.5B.
"Together, Cloud and YouTube exited 2024 at an annual revenue run rate of $110 billion" - Sundar Pichai, CEO
Revenue +12%
*Google Search & Other +13%
*YouTube Ads +14%
*Google Network -4%
*Google Cloud +30%
EBIT +31%
*marg 32% (27)
EPS +31%
Google Q4 Earnings
Total Revenue +12% EPS +31% Search +13% YouTube +14% Google Cloud +31%
Google invests another $1 billion in Anthropic
Google acquired YouTube for $1.65 Billion back in October 2006.
Google has now brought in revenue of $145.4 Billion from just YouTube ads over the last 5 years
If Google Cloud can only grow at 30% per year, it will only be a $600 billion business with maybe $120 billion in operating income a decade from now.
$GOOGL Cloud revenue as a % of total revenues
Google - "We are confident about the opportunities ahead, and to accelerate our progress, we expect to invest approximately $75 billion in capital expenditures in 2025"
6.Meta
$META Meta Q4 FY24:
Daily active people +5% Y/Y to 3.35B.
Ad impressions +6% Y/Y.
• Revenue +21% Y/Y to $48.4B ($1.4B beat).
• Operating margin 48% (+7pp Y/Y).
• EPS $8.02 ($1.26 beat).
• FY25 Capex: $60-$65B (+53% to +66% Y/Y)
$META Q4 2024 DAP +5%
Ad Impressions +6% Avg.
Price Per Ad +14%
Revenue +21%
EBIT +43% *marg. 48% (41)
Net Income +49%
EPS +50%
The journey from introducing the like button to making more than $165 Billion of revenue in a year
The DAU of METa is phenomenal
3.35 Billion people use at least one of Facebook, Instagram or WhatsApp $META EVERY SINGLE DAY There are estimated to be ~8.2 Billion people on Earth That means ~41% of the population of the ENTIRE world uses a Facebook owned product every day
Instagram enters the chat
7.Tesla
$TSLA Tesla Q4 FY24:
• Revenue +2% Y/Y to $25.7B ($1.4B miss).
• Gross margin 16% (-1pp Y/Y).
• Operating margin 6% (-2pp Y/Y).
• Capex +21% Y/Y to $2.8B.
• Free cash flow -2% Y/Y to $2.0B.
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.73 ($0.04 miss).
Tesla's $TSLA annual revenue by category
Tesla’s annual revenue:
2024: $97.7 billion
2023: $96.8 billion
2022: $81.5 billion
2021: $53.8 billion
2020: $31.5 billion
2019: $24.6 billion
2018: $21.5 billion
2017: $11.8 billion
2016: $7 billion
2015: $4.1 billion
2014: $3.2 billion
2013: $2 billion
2012: $413 million
2011: $204 million
2010: $117 million
2009: $112 million
2008: $15 million
2007: $73 thousand
$TSLA Q4 2024 Revenue +2% *Automotive -8% *Energy Gen. & Storage +113% Gross Profit -6% *marg. 16.3% (17.6) EBIT -23% *marg. 6.2% (8.2) Adj. EBITDA +25% *marg. 19.1% (15.7) EPS +3% FCF -2%
Tesla's big Model Y refresh is here - Redesign with headlight and tail light bar - New suspension + wheels - Power folding second row seats -Larger 15.4-inch center display - 8-inch rear display - 250kw supercharging
The new Model Y’s light bar reflects onto the road during the night 🔥
2024 U.S. pure EV sales comparison: • Tesla: 618,000 • Hyundai/Kai: 123,000 • GM: 114,000 • Ford: 98,000 • BMW: 52,000 • Rivian: 51,500 • VW Group (VW/Porsche/Audi): 46,000 • Honda/Acura: 40,500 • Nissan: 31,000 • Toyota/Lexus: 28,200 • Mercedes: 27,500 • Lucid: 10,200 • Volvo: 5,600
BYD delivered 595,000 pure electric cars in Q4, bringing their total 2024 BEV sales to 1,764,992 cars. 2024 global BEV sales: • Tesla: 1,789,226 (-1% YoY) • BYD: 1,764,992 (+12% YoY)
Q4 2024 BEV sales: • BYD: 595,000 • Tesla: 495,570
Elon Musk just confirmed Tesla $TSLA will launch "Unsupervised FSD in Austin, Texas in June of this year" ... "No one will be the car"
HOLY MOLY $TSLA ENERGY IS ON FIRE ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENTS HIT A RECORD 11 GWH -- UP 244% YOY
TESLA HAS REPORTEDLY RECEIVED OVER 130,000 ORDERS FOR THE NEW MODEL Y IN CHINA, IN JUST 16 DAYS
Tesla has reportedly given suppliers guidance that they plan to produce 600 Optimus robots per week by the end of this year
Bonus Ai News
"Nearly all Americans use AI, though most dislike it," per Axios: 72% of those surveyed had a "somewhat" or "very" negative opinion of how AI would impact the spread of false information, while 64% said the same about how it affects social connections
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OpenAI goes Head to head on search with Google.
Now we getting traffic from ChatGPT, crazyyyy.
Anthropic CEO at Davos: “Amodei said he was relatively confident the technology would surpass human intelligence in the next two or three years.”
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GS: Only 6% of US companies report using AI
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AI has now enabled the creation of the fastest growing software product (Cursor) maybe of all time.
European AI startups raised $8B in 2024, with 70% going to seed to Series B rounds, led by startups in the UK, France, and Germany (@romaindillet/ TechCrunch)
I assume full o3 to be around 130 IQ. Let that sink in. Everyone has an Albert Einstein in its pocket.
OPENAI
Alexandr Wang: Congrats to OpenAI on getting 26.6 on HLE with deep research!
SoftBank in talks to invest up to $25bn into OpenAI
Perplexity
View From The Top with Aravind Srinivas, Cofounder and CEO of Perplexity
DeepSeek
Anyone who thinks DeepSeek just came out of nowhere should see this graph. For each model on this graph, weights, code, and detailed papers were released. This is a team with a strong track record and has been working hard for a while. They didn't come out of nowhere.
DeepSeek-R1 performance on par with Open AI-o1! If R1 is as effective and costs 27X less to build, it’s bad news for semiconductor stocks and a big win for software. Good thing we are invested in promising software companies incorporating AI.
DeepSeek seems to have created a panic moment within the biggest companies and it should alarm investors. Costs: •2,048 Nvidia H800 GPUs: $40-50million •Training: $5million If all it takes to beat OpenAI is a maximum of $55million, the industry is becoming commoditized way
Bonus2: Robots
The current landscape of humanoid robots
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Final lesson
If you are young, this is one of the most important charts to understand. Dollar cost averaging and holding for long periods of time is undefeated for 200 years.
